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ʶҹóҤҹѹԺйѹٻШѻ 29-30 .. 2558 ѻ 2-6 .. 2558

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ʶҹóҤҹѹԺйѹٻШѻ 29-30 .. 2558 ѻ 2-6 .. 2558 ºѷ . ӡѴ (Ҫ)

ѻ ҹҤҹѹԺù (Brent) 1.04 ­Ѱ ͺ 49.67 ­Ѱ ͺ ҤҹѹԺ (Dubai) 0.05 ­Ѱ ͺ 44.48­Ѱ ͺ ҤҹѹԺʷ硫 (WTI) Ŵŧ 0.82 ­Ѱ ͺ 45.72 ­Ѱ ͺ ҤҹѹູԹ͡෹ 95 0.33 ­Ѱ ͺ 57.12 ­Ѱ ͺ йѹŴŧ 0.57 ­Ѱ ͺ 60.75 ­Ѱ ͺ Ѩ·觼šз
Ѩ·зҤҹѹԺԧǡ

· Baker Hughes Inc. ѷԡôҹشйѹԺ§ҹ Ǩӹǹ蹢شйѹ (Rig) Ѱ ѻشѹ 23 .. 58 Ŵŧ 49 ҡѻ͹ 1,317 شͺ 2 繡Ŵŧͧ 7 ѻ

· СͺôҹǨмԵѹͧѰ кҤüԵѹԺѰ »Դ觹ѹع ੾觷բҴ (ѧüԵ¡ 10 ŵѹ) дԹҹҹ ҡҤҹѹԺѧŴŧз觹ѹҧ鹵ͧԴԹäԴ繻ҳ 2% ͧػҹѰ ǹ Energy Information Administration (EIA) Թ蹼ԵѹԺѰϨصԡôԹá 24% ҧ͹ .. . . 58

· National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) ͧç蹨չ纻ҳͧԧҳԪ 15 ѹ ͧҳùӹѹҡ蹢ͧç蹹 дѺáѡӡ 10 ѹ 蹤ҹѧҹͧ ͹ Bloomberg §ҹչѡ纻ҳͧѹԺԧҳԪش 2557 244.6 ҹ ջҳáѡ纹ѹͧ鹨ҡҵáô觡

· ʶҺѹѴѹѺͶ Moody ҴóѷصˡѧҹлѺŴŧ÷عҳ 35-40% 㹪ǧѧͧ 2558 դ§Ŵŧա㹻 2559 ҡҤҹѹѧдѺ

· ҤáҧѰ (Fed) ŧѧûЪСùº¡Թ (FOMC) Ӥ蹵͡Ժҧ觢ͧɰԨѰ ¡ÿ鹵ҧ蹪ѴͧҤçҹ ҧá Fed ѧ׹ѹҨоԨóҧǹ 㹡þԨóҢѵҴ͡¹º ˹ѡ֧ѵԹͷŴŧҧҡ㹻Ѩغѹ
Ѩ·зҤҹѹԺԧź

· CFTC §ҹ ѴáͧعѺŴʶҹСöͤͧ (Net Long Position) ѭҹѹԺ WTI 㹵Ҵ͢ǧ˹ҷҴ ICE ͹͹еҴ NYMEX Ѱ ѻشѹ 20 .. 58 ŧ 4,198 ѭ ҡѻ͹ 225,926 ѭ
· ҳüԵѹԺͧѡдѺ٧شͺ 35 4 ҹŵѹ ѧҡѰѡöҢ͵ŧѺѰͧʶҹ ѹ͡äͺͧǹ觵ҴšҡԵ OPEC ѡҨеͧº¡˹ҤѺشҫǹ觡õҴ

· ʶҺѹѴѹѺͶ Standard and Poors (S&P) ѺŴдѺͶͧ͢¨ҡ BBB- BB+ ʶҹТ (Junk) 繤áͺ 10
· Ҥ Goldman Sachs кؤͧùѹԺͧչѺ Emerging Markets ͵лԹҤҹѹԺ Brent չдѺ 50 ­Ѱϵͺ Ŵŧҡ 2557 дѺ 99.49 ­Ѱϵͺ
ҤҹѹԺ
ҤҹѹԺ ICE Brent Ѻ鹡 7.86% лԴǷдѺ 52.99 ­Ѱϵͺ ѹ 30 .. 58 ѧҡѷ Baker Hughes СȼǨҳ蹢شйѹ (Oil Rig) Ѱ ŧعçش 2530 繻Ѩ˹عҤҹѹ ʴҵҴѺǨҡҤҹѹ赡ػҹšѺͧâͧš 駹ѧѭҳê͡ŧعçâشйѹԴ Ҩ觼Եѹ㹷˹觢شй֡㹷ᴧ ҧáѡҴػҹѧ鹵Ҵҳ 1 ҹŵѹ ҳͧѹԧҳԪ٧ Ѩ·ҨѺͧ͡õҤҢҧ繷ҧ (OSP) ͧѹ͢͹ .. 58 ͧȼԵ OPEC лСȵ͹ ѻҹҴó ICE Brent ͹㹡ͺ $49.64 - 53 ­Ѱ ͺ WTI ͹㹡ͺ 45.39 - 48.33 ­Ѱ ͺ ͹㹡ͺ 43.48 - 47.5 ­Ѱ ͺ

ʶҹóҤҹѹູԹ
ѻҹҤҹѹູԹѺ鹨ҡ Platts §ҹҴѹູԹѧ֧ͧҡҳػҹ˹ͷ㹪ǧĴ˹ National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) ͧչѺŴҤҢ»աѹູԹ㹻ŧ 0.27 ǹԵ ¹ѹູԹ 90 Ron 5.4 ǹԵ (28.14 ҷ/Ե) ռѹ 26 .. 58 Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) §ҹҳͧѹູԹԧҳԪ㹭 ѻشѹ 24 .. 58 Ŵŧҡѻ͹ 0.7 ҹ 2.9 % 10.7 ҹ ҧáӹѡҹʶԵ觨չ §ҹҳüԵ ѹູԹ ͹ .. 57 鹨ҡա͹ 14.1% 84.9 ҹ ͧҡçѹҡ ѹູԹ᷹ѹ 㹪ǧ͹˹ ѷѹ觪ҵԢͧ ͡ѹູԹ ͹ .. 57 鹨ҡ͹͹ 20.6% 7.56 ҹ 駻 鹨ҡա͹ 14.6% 73.33 ҹ ա ҤҴ Pertamina ͧԹⴹҨҹѹູԹ͹ .. 58 Ŵŧҡ͹͹ 100,000 ҹ 9.0 ҹ ͧҡػʧ㹻Ȫ͵ǵͧѧ˹ѡǧ» 57 ѰŴش˹عѹູԹ 88 RON 鹻 58 ѻҴҤҹѹູԹ͹㹡ͺ 55.78-59.8 ­Ѱ ͺ

ʶҹóҤҹѹ
ѻҹҤҹѹ鹨ҡ NDRC ͧչѺŴҤҢ»աѹ 㹻ŧ 0.30 ǹԵ ¹ѹ 5.4 ǹԵ (28.14 ҷԵ) ռѹ 26 .. 58 Platts §ҹ ػʧѹѺԹ (Marine Gasoil) û٧ Rotterdam Port Authority ʹ¹ѹѺԹ ͹ .. 57 鹨ҡ͹͹ 563,000 938,000 駹ռŨҡë纡͹úѧѺѹԹͷ 0.1% S ࢵ Emission Control Area ռ͹ .. 58 СͺѺ PAJ §ҹҳͧѹԧҳԪ㹭 ѻشѹ 24 .. 58 Ŵŧҡѻ͹ 700,000 6.1% 10.8 ҹ лҳͧ Kerosene Ŵŧ 1.4 ҹ 9.2 % 14.0 ҹ ҧáҤҴç Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co (Yasref) 㹫ش«觻ѨغѹԹͧѵ 60 % ͧѧüԵ (ѧá 400,000 ŵѹ) Թͧ㹪ǧҧ͹ .. 58 ͡ѹ 㹵Ҵ ա Platts §ҹ Arbitrage ѹŨҡеѹ͡ҧûԴ зç蹹ѹѵҡá٧ͧҡҡá (Refining Margin) ٧㹪ǧҤҹѹԺ ˹§ҹšҡâͧչ§ҹ ʹ͡ѹl 2558 鹨ҡա͹ 47.5% 4.1 ҹѹ 30.55 ҹ ѻҴҤҹѹŨ͹㹡ͺ 59.16-59.8 ­Ѱ ͺ

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